FLUSHING MEADOWS, N.Y. — Aryna Sabalenka beat Amanda Anisimova 6-3, 7-6(3) in the U.S Open final at Arthur Ashe Stadium on Saturday.
The No. 1 seed prevailed over the No. 8 seed in a tense match that was even less straightforward than the scoreline, ultimately decided by a second-serve point battle, Sabalenka’s superior nerve management, and the balance of risk and reward in both players’ games.
It is Sabalenka’s second consecutive U.S. Open title and her fourth Grand Slam title, cementing her place at the top of the world rankings.
The Athletic writers Charlie Eccleshare and Matt Futterman are here to analyze the final and what it means for tennis.
How did Sabalenka lock down?
Sabalenka’s most recent Grand Slam final, the French Open loss to Coco Gauff, was defined in part by how stressed the world No. 1 got in pressure situations. Sabalenka is outwardly expressive and so often teeters close to the edge of when the standards she sets for herself start to become counterproductive.
She teetered on that edge here when she was broken for 3-2 in the first set. Frustrated, she thought about smacking a ball away in frustration but decided better of it. Had she shown her opponent and the crowd how annoyed she was, it might have lit a fuse on Ashe and brought back memories of her unraveling in Paris.
Instead, she kept her cool and won the next four games to take the opening set. Having made three unforced errors in the first five games of the match, she made none in the next four. And after three forced errors in the fifth game alone, Sabalenka made only two in the rest of the set.
Aryna Sabalenka locked down after a pivotal game in the opening set.
Anisimova started spraying errors after being locked in early herself, so Sabalenka was one part of a two-player exchange. But as Sabalenka found (to her cost) against Gauff, sometimes being solid is enough in a Grand Slam final.
She displayed it again after the most devastating possible blow, being broken when serving for the title, including missing a smash just one winner away from the championship point. Sabalenka got to a tiebreak, where she has been so dominant this year, and locked down again for the win. — Charlie Eccleshare
Why were second-serve points so important?
So much of tennis is about serving. This match presented something else: a battle of returning, especially on second serves.
That’s a credit to two players who are better than just about anyone else at feasting on an opponent’s second serve. Returners like that see second serves as an opportunity to win points, while servers generally aim to win around 55 percent of the points they play on them. Throughout the match, Sabalenka and Anisimova took riskier cuts at second serves, going closer to the lines more so than hitting faster — their average speeds were in line with the rest of the tournament.
Sabalenka and Anisimova can push that number much lower, but as this final unfolded, only one of them was able to do it. At 3-3 in the first set, Sabalenka was serving at 30-30. She missed her first serve, but Anisimova couldn’t get her second-serve return in. She got another look on the next point but hit a pretty meek ball. Sabalenka jumped on it, and Anisimova sent the next shot out.
She stared up at the crowd and let out a big sigh. She knew she had let a golden opportunity for a lead slip away in the second half of a set. It was part of a four-game slide that gave Sabalenka the first set.
By the time that set was over, Sabalenka was winning 54 percent of her second-serve points after being below 40 percent earlier in the set. Anisimova was way below that. Through the first game of the second set, she had played 14 points on her second serve and won just 4. In the tiebreak that decided the match, Anisimova missed another second-serve return and couldn’t put away the next ball after making one.
Both players knew exactly where this final would be won. It was Sabalenka who prevailed in that decisive battle and, with it, the match. — Matt Futterman
How did Sabalenka’s variety help her find an outlet?
Sabalenka’s improved variety has largely sent her to the top of the sport. For years, she was purely a power player whose solution for making errors on hard shots was to hit harder.
Over the last two years, she has increasingly relied on drop shots and slices to keep her opponents off-balance and to have something to fall back on when her power game is having an off day.
The power was working just fine Saturday. It was keeping Anisimova behind the baseline; though, given the high-octane nature of both players, there were going to be errors. But Sabalenka’s two release valves were safer than Anisimova’s.
Anisimova’s issue for most of the afternoon was that she never got the feel for the ball that won her the last two matches against Iga Świątek and Naomi Osaka. On those nights, her low-margin, high-risk, high-reward game hit its stride and she didn’t need to lean on anything else.
Amanda Anisimova’s relentlessness from the baseline initially overwhelmed Aryna Sabalenka, but she needed a tempo change. (Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
On Saturday, when Anisimova’s unforced errors outpaced her winners, there wasn’t anything she could do except wish it was different. Sabalenka, meanwhile, could change tempo with slices, either to destabilize Anisimova’s rhythm or give herself a break from relentless hitting.
Sabalenka’s initial break of serve in the second set was a perfect example. Anisimova saved the first of two break points with a big serve out wide to get to 30-40. But on the second, Sabalenka came with a different look.
She drew in Anisimova with a slice forehand to the front of the court. Sabalenka’s slice stayed low enough to take away Anisimova’s preferred weapon, the backhand down the line. So she rolled a safer but less effective backhand across the court, which Sabalenka swatted away to break.
Anisimova would draw back even three games later and would even break her when she served for the match. But by then, Sabalenka had figured she didn’t need to try to match her power. She could use the varied arsenal that has carried her to three of the last five Grand Slam finals and two of the titles. — Matt Futterman
How was the risk-reward battle won?
Early on, Anisimova’s all-or-nothing approach was paying dividends. She was crushing winners and reducing Sabalenka to the unusual role of antagonist, something she doesn’t enjoy.
But as the match wore on, the risk-reward of Anisimova’s game started to lean too far the other way. Anisimova’s two strongest and devastating shots — the ones she uses to win matches — are her forehand and backhand down the line. They are huge weapons and are basically unplayable, but they are also low margin. More importantly, they are lower margin than Sabalenka’s two best shots.
Sabalenka hits plenty of unbelievable forehands and backhands too, but they are most often crosscourt, with vicious whip and short angles that take her opponents out of play but also take the ball over the lowest part of the net.
That was most notable in the second set. With Sabalenka serving up 4-3, Anisimova made four errors — two unforced, two forced — to give the world No. 1 an extremely welcome nudge toward the finish line. Later, she reversed that trend, getting one more ball into play to draw a missed smash from Sabalenka when she was 2 points from victory, serving at 5-4 in the second set.
Aryna Sabalenka’s dangerous but balanced crosscourt backhand outplayed Anisimova’s down-the-line blasts in the long run. (Al Bello / Getty Images)
But her first return point in Sabalenka’s next service game and the first two of the tiebreak were missed returns. One of them, on a second serve, came from a backhand down the line, sailing wide. Sabalenka had won her previous 18 tiebreaks and has spoken about the importance of locking down early on in them. She was able to do so again here, with Anisimova’s missed returns helping her to do so.
Anisimova’s game is built around smacking balls down the line off either wing, and that can be devastating. But the low-margin nature of her game ultimately proved unsustainable against Sabalenka, a similarly big hitter who played with a touch more control on the night. — Charlie Eccleshare
Stories from the U.S. Open women’s singles
What did Sabalenka say after the final?
“This is crazy. All those tough lessons. I am speechless right now. First of all, I want to say congrats, Amanda, for reaching back-to-back finals on the slams.
“I know how much it hurts, losing in finals, but the moment you win your first one, (you will understand). You’re going to win it; you play incredible tennis. Congrats to you and your team. And, girl, you’re going to enjoy it even more after these tough losses in the finals.
“It’s been tough this year. In those finals, I was really terrible. But come on, it’s worth it, right? Thank you so much. I love you; you’re my family. Thank you to my boyfriend — without your support, I wouldn’t be able to make it.”
What did Anisimova say after the final?
“Losing in two finals in a row is great, but it’s also super hard. I think I didn’t fight hard enough for my dreams today. I just wanted to say congrats to Aryna today. You are so incredible.
“I know I have to face you all the time, but I’m in awe of what you accomplished and keep on achieving — so many incredible things — so a big congratulations to you and your team. You guys are amazing.
“Thank you, everyone, for coming out and supporting me at my home slam all of the two weeks. It’s been an incredible fortnight. I absolutely love playing here; it’s always been a dream of mine to play in the final of the U.S. Open, so a big thank you to everyone who has made this happen.”
Source: The New York Times
